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Bitcoin (BTC), the biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has confronted a setback in its latest good points after failing to consolidate above the $27,000 degree. With no optimistic macro information to drive BTC past higher resistance strains, trade specialists are in search of a chart evaluation that means BTC could also be on the verge of a big transfer towards $20,000.
This potential cheaper price level may function a brand new larger low in Bitcoin’s 1-week chart, harking back to its trajectory in 2019 earlier than the halving occasion.
Bitcoin Chart Flashing Purple
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital lately shared a chart on X (previously Twitter) outlining Bitcoin’s potential downward trajectory. In keeping with Rekt Capital’s evaluation, Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 mark, establishing a brand new larger low on its 1-week chart, mirroring the value motion noticed in 2019 earlier than the halving occasion.
Rekt Capital highlights the importance of a revisit to the Macro Larger Low within the present cycle, which may happen in early 2024, coinciding with the halving 12 months. Within the four-year cycle, this might signify that the draw back wick of Candle 4 would type a Macro Larger Low relative to Candle 3, as seen in one other chart shared by Rekt beneath.
Whereas some argue that one other drop into the Macro Larger Low is unlikely as a result of COVID-19 crash in March 2020 as a black swan occasion, Rekt Capital emphasizes that the magnitude of a possible upcoming drop could differ significantly.
The COVID-19 crash resulted in a 72% drop from the 2019 native high to the March 2020 larger low. Nevertheless, if the 2023 native high had been round $31,000, it could solely require a 37% drop to revisit the upper low.
Whereas a repeat of the -72% crash is unlikely, Rekt Capital means that Bitcoin may retrace -37% while not having one other black swan occasion.
With Bitcoin being 210 days away from halving in April 2024, Rekt Capital parallels the 2019 cycle, throughout which BTC skilled a reduction rally earlier than forming one other decrease excessive.
Throughout, Bitcoin seems to be experiencing an analogous reduction rally. Rekt Capital means that Bitcoin could not want a drastic crash or one other black swan occasion over the next months to succeed in its Macro Larger Low on this cycle however quite a retracement of roughly 27% from present costs.
Presently, the biggest cryptocurrency available in the market is buying and selling at $26,600. Regardless of experiencing a retracement beneath the $27,000 degree, Bitcoin has achieved a slight revenue of 0.7% throughout the 24-hour.
As highlighted by Rekt Capital, it stays unsure whether or not Bitcoin will observe the trail noticed in 2019. Nevertheless, what is clear is that the BTC market is exhibiting indicators of stagnation, with a possible worth breakout looming on both aspect.
Featured picture from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
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